Covid in China: inflexion point?
What’s going on in China? Nobody really knows. One thing’s for (almost) certain – you lift the covid restrictions on urban populations that have been locked down like wot they have for two years, with omega (and maybe other variants) in the breeze – and it’s going to go through them like a dose of salts.
There are several aspects of major interest – Western self interest – of which here are a couple.
(1) Economic: the lid has only been kept on the seething global energy cauldron (what lid !? - I hear you say. Oh yes, gas prices could have gone higher still) because the Chinese economy has been well and truly on hold whilst in lockdown. With a property crash, and declining retail sales. And that hasn’t just “suppressed” (relative term) worldwide energy prices: it’s the same for all the major raw materials. You think you’ve seen price spikes? Well, if the lifting of lockdown works out positively for China in GDP terms, you ain’t seen nothing.
I know some large gas players who are making a massive bet on this. Personally, whilst fully acknowledging what could happen, I’m not at all sure it will. Sickness on a vast scale may not be so easily consistent with revitalising that monster economy.
(2) Political: what did it take for Xi to backtrack on a lockdown policy that had his name all over it in bold logograms? With serious protest already building – and then the TV-watching public noticing that The Whole Of The Rest Of The Entire World (as represented in World Cup spectators) were mingling closely and happily with not a mask in sight.
Well, presumably the CPC still reckons it can command the information space, and will convert the screeching U-turn into a personal triumph. Of sorts. But maybe not. Maybe everyone can now see he’s for turning when the right combination of factors applies. And maybe his U-turn has really awkward consequences …
Hmm. China-watching in ’23 is going to be interesting. And those gas prices.
ND
Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2022/12/covid-in-china-inflexion-point.html
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