Banking Crisis - again ...

Commodities down on banking stress

Here at [email protected] we pride ourselves on having spotted the “2008″ banking crisis in the summer of 2007, when two German banks went down, followed by Northern Rock – all three being canaries in the dank, dirty coalmine of culpably fatuous and irresponsible banking strategies being practised deep underground, that turned out to be systemic.

So what’s happening now?  It doesn’t look good.

• Silicon Valley and Signature
• Deutsche Bank (again) and Credit Suisse
• risk to economic recovery due to reduced bank lending
• likely response of the authorities: back to QE! (interest rates coming off already …)

Thus far, the current banking woes have been accompanied by a pronounced downtick in commodity prices.  If, on the basis of economic contraction, that persists then maybe inflation doesn’t just take off again with QE … and people are forever pronouncing on the Chinese property market … but I’m no good at predicting these macro phenomena.  (What’s more, I don’t know who is.)  Are you out there, CU?!

ND