The Treasury released the latest budget data earlier today, which shows the 12-month rolling deficit at $2.3 trillion or 8.4 percent of GDP.
We are confused as to how many are worried about the deficit coming in at 6 percent for the fiscal year. According to our analysis — and it ain’t rocket science, folks — we are already there and then some. Here is CBO’s take,
CBO’s most recent baseline projections, which were published in May, show revenues totaling $4.8 trillion and outlays totaling $6.4 trillion, for a deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023.1 On the basis of its estimate of the deficit through July and preliminary estimates of revenues and outlays in August and September, CBO now expects that the total deficit for 2023 will be $1.7 trillion, or about $200 billion larger than the estimate it published in May. Revenues and outlays alike are now anticipated to be below amounts CBO projected in May, but the reduction in revenues is larger. – CBO
In order to hit the CBO estimate of a $1.7 trillion FY2023 deficit, the August and September deficits will have to average $50 billion. Not likely. We suspect the bond market is finally waking up.
This issue should be front and center on investors’ radar as we suspect it will become a headline issue very soon.
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