The starter’s flag is raised and they’re off!
Nobody knows exactly what will happen in a horse race, but sometimes it seems that pundits have already seen the race and that it’s a foregone conclusion. Unfortunately, there’s no magic formula for learning this, other than experience and preparation. However, you
can better your understanding of what makes a good horse selection through a few factors, and it all starts with
studying the racecards for the day.
Racecard
You can learn a lot just by studying the racecard. While a lot of casual punters use straightforward methods for picking out their horse in a race such as the name, because it’s the favourite, or simply the colour (people love a grey horse), you can use your racecard for education.
Grey horses are often well-backed
The racecard will give you data on a wide variety of factors, from form in previous races, the jockey and stable, all the way through to how far a horse has travelled for an event. One huge factor to pay attention to when selecting a horse is taking into consideration the distance travelled by the trainer and horse. Would you really want to go through the financial and logistical minefield of transferring a horse if it didn’t have any chance of winning? I didn’t think so.
If the plan was just to give your mare a run out, you’d select a track close to the stable, but travelling a greater distance is a sign of intent to challenge for a prize. Be sure to check out the Longest Travellers section of the card as it could give a good indication of the trainers who really fancy their chances.
Jockey
There’s
a lot of debate around how much difference a jockey makes to a horse, but the general consensus it that a jockey accounts for 10% of a horses performance on any given day. This suggests that jockeys will only make a difference in tightly contested races where the horses are evenly matched.
A good jockey can give you an edge
Jockeys are not particularly well paid and many receive bonuses for winning races, so often you’ll find jockeys have lined up multiple rides at the same meeting to maximise their earning potential for a day. It’s the jockeys who only have one ride at a meeting you want to keep an eye out for. Often living miles away from the racecourse, it wouldn’t be cost effective for a jockey to only have one ride in a day, so it sticks out when this happens. They must fancy their chances of a win or have been given a substantial retainer to put all their eggs in one basket. Either way, it makes an intriguing consideration for selecting a horse.
Performance
Horses, like human athletes, have their preferences when it comes to conditions. You wouldn’t get the best out of Mo Farah by making him run a 400 metre sprint, and the same goes for equestrian. When analysing results, make sure you check out National Hunt course and distance winners, as these tend to have the
highest return on investment compared to other race types.
It’s not just the course and distance which impacts performance though, it’s also the going. It’s important to
understand the optimum conditions for a chosen horse as even the best racehorse will not be able to maximise their ability in all conditions. Take note of the going, officially rated by the clerk from Firm to Heavy, and check to see whether your selection has won in those conditions before.
Ensuring the horse is suited to the ground conditions, has experience of winning at the course and at the race distance will give you the best foresight into a solid selection.
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