What's the risk from COVID-19? Any takers for large scale Russian Roulette. It would be an exciting ride.

In previous posts the Pundit has dissected health statistics to try and understand better how dangerous COVID-19 is.

Several points emerged from these investigations.

High virus infectiousness and lack of baseline immunity mean that almost everyone in the community is at risk of infection. In the absence of vaccination everyone will catch the virus. The virus can damage lungs, and spread in the bloodstream to damage other vital organs, such as the kidneys, heart and brain.

To communicate and measure these risks is a challenge as reliable numbers require extensive surveys and test.

But a recent Australian Government agency provides reliable numbers that may allow anyone assess their risks in terms of numbers that are understandable.

The numbers The Pundit is referring to are rates of hospitalisation once infected (which in ordinary terms real nasty sickness),  and rates of transfer to intensive care (serious likely deadly illness unless well managed).

Table 5 below shows these numbers for different age groups for this year in Australia.

They are evidence gathered by independent health professionals in a high quality medical system. The staff are alert but not overloaded. Detection of infections is likely to be near complete, given extremely high testing rates. In short, the numbers are accurate.

The main message from this table for all people 50-years and over, is that once infected the chances of severe, life-threatening illness are appreciable  (about 1/20 to 1/10 ).