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Steady predictable trend of improvement in the odds of staying out of hospital in Sydney

Tuesday, September 7, 2021 23:17

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Previous posts at this blog have pointed out the importance of hospitalisation outcomes in understanding what to do and what is happening with the serious coronavirus outbreak in New South Wales.

One of the messages GMO Pundit is advocating is that hospitalisation statistics may provide an early signal of continuing improvement in managing the distressing outbreak usually discussed in terms of increasing numbers of diagnosed infections. These high numbers are worrying not least because they accompanied by some seriously adverse health effects for many people and families and huge challenges for medical staff in hospitals.

Extremely informative weekly surveillance reports are available from the New South Wales public health agencies.

From these reports is possible to obtain weekly statistics for the odds of staying away from hospital as compared to the odds of being forced to go to hospital if you get infected.

The numbers for weekly new diagnosed cases and weekly admissions to hospital are large and relatively precise as measures of success in managing the outbreak,

What hasn’t been much commented about to the pundits knowledge is how these are a predictable trend that can be projected forward to anticipated future improvements.

This is shown in the graph below produced by GMO Pundit from New South Wales government reports

The graphic provides a simple summary of steady improvement in health protection outcomes from the heroic public health effort in New South Wales.

Week 33 ends on 21 August 2021

When the logarithm of the odds is one, 10 times as many people stay out of hospital as are forced to enter hospital for treatment. A log of the odds of 2 means 100 times as many infected people stay out of hospital as are forced to enter hospital for treatment.

Odds of a tolerably good health outcome after infection in Sydney have progressively improved over the 6 weeks of the epidemic presented in the graphic. They are improving by a factor of 1.5-fold (1.48) each week (ten-fold in 6 weeks).

The Pundit suggests that this trend is strongly driven by the rapid and targeted rollout of vaccination protection in New South Wales and that, hopefully, we can expect further (2-fold) improvement for several more weeks, mitigating to some extent the severe stress on hospital services from increasing case numbers.

Source: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2021/09/steady-precictable-trend-of-improvement.html

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