1. Finland kills the euro
Today, everyone with access to broadband internet is speculating about when and if Greece will leave the eurozone. And if so, whether speculators will then bring the crisis to Spain and Italy.
But what if the end of the euro lies not in the weakest states, but the strongest? Although a prosperous country with a small debt load, Finland suffered huge setbacks during the Great Recession. The eurozone’s downturn has hit Finland particularly hard because Finland is well-integrated into the global economy. In an interesting article for the Wall Street Journal’s Marketwatch, Matthew Lynn argues that Finland will leave the euro first, because it’s a small country with a strong economy being buffeted by the troubles of weaker states. Austerity Doesn’t Work, Part 439: England’s Economy Sucks |
In addition, there are signs of political turmoil. The True Finns, a nationalist and anti-euro party, have been steadily increasing their share of the Finnish vote. If the euro continues to suffer, parties like the True Finns will prosper and if an economically sound country like Finland were to leave the euro, it would signal that currency is truly in jeopardy. Even if it’s not Finland, that stronger countries are reconsidering the currency union is a bad sign for the euro. And for Germany.
2. Germany planned this from the beginning
The German dream is at hand. What they’ve been unable to achieve through guns and tanks, the unified Germany is about to achieve through austerity and export-based economic prowess. This Friday, Floyd Norris at the New York Times wrote this alternate history of the euro as if Germany had intended to dominate Europe from the euro’s outset. Norris is careful to note that there is “no evidence of any such conspiracy. But if there had been, things might have played out more or less as they have.”
As the euro crisis deepens, Germany has taken on greater and greater power in dictating fiscal policy to eurozone states. This result is inevitable considering that such a strong economic union requires a closer political union. The euro worked fine while EU countries were growing. But, after the global downturn, the European Union can’t hope to control country’s economies without the power to control their political mechanisms. There are too many competing states to a coherent economic philosophy.
That’s why Europe has reached an impasse. Either the euro ends or the EU gets stronger. The former hurts Germany, the latter empowers them tremendously. A strong European Union would entail a strong Germany, as the German economy would continue to boom on the backs of southern Europeans. Ordinary Germans complain that they’re being forced to subsidize the sins of the Greeks and Spanish. They can’t complain about that this time.
If the euro survives, Germany will accomplish what it couldn’t through blood, sweat and tears. A German continent that serves as a vehicle for German economic and political interests. The price of integration would be more bailout money for lesser states. But that money would be a drop in the bucket compared with the benefit to the German economy. That’s why, if the euro survives, you’ll start to hear more of a German conspiracy. After all, isn’t this what they thought would happen all along
3. Mitt Romney wins election
Embarrassed by stories about magic underwear, Mitt Romney cannily changes the topic; crashes the global economy. All pundits suggest that a global economic collapse would reflect poorly on President Obama. So, why not? Okay, so there’s no evidence linking Mitt Romney to the Greeks or the Spanish anti-austerity activists. In fact, they share very little ideological common ground.
Related: Democrats To Republicans: “No, YOU’RE European!” |
But you just wait. If this thing goes sour before November, Romney’s going to need an alibi.
4. Is Ron Paul trying to get us back on the Gold Standard?
Austerity now, austerity forever! Would you put it past Ron Paul to start a financial crisis for political gain?
One of Ron Paul’s principle beliefs is that the global economy is predicated on fabricated certainty and faulty ideology. Paul’s ideas were ascendant after the 2008 crisis, and they would be on the rise again in the event of another global fiscal meltdown. Were the euro to end, Paul would look like a prophet, even if he’s just a crank.
This weekend, Ron Paul supporters continued to systematically steal delegates from other candidates in the hopes of influencing the Republican Party position at the convention. Paul’s not past trying to influence the world economy through subterfuge.
There’s nothing Ron Paul supporters like more than a good conspiracy theory. Here’s one for them: Who’s to say that Ron Paul supporters aren’t secretly pushing for the end of the euro? After all, there’s nothing that would challenge the current financial order quite like economic chaos. Who’s got the most to gain from a Greek exit? Ron Paul.
5. Obama’s bored of talking about mild recovery, prefers deep depression
If the economy collapses again Obama gets to be FDR. Or more likely, Hoover. Is the tea party even still around?