An election is the only way to try to break the stalemate

Assuming Johnson does secure a deal, it appears probable that he will have given in further on special treatment for Northern Ireland. Could such a deal get through Parliament?

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Leader of the Commons, was doing the broadcast rounds at the weekend urging members of his former wrecking crew to back any new deal, despite its probable similarity to the one negotiated by Theresa May.

Yet, at the same time, Priti Patel, the Home Secretary and another hardliner when on the backbenches, was on television warning against Northern Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the UK.

And the DUP itself was putting out warnings about what it could and couldn’t support.

– Dusting off the parliamentary abacus –

All of which revives the same old question from December and March, of what price a Labour MP? There were suggestions, rejected by Jeremy Corbyn but backed by others in the shadow cabinet, of attaching a referendum to any Johnson deal.

But what if Johnson doesn’t get a new deal (or MPs reject the one he does)? The picture here is just as unclear.

With No10 having gone quiet on its plans to get around the Benn Act, which requires that the PM request a Brexit extension, the EU is relying on it as a backstop to the negotiations.

Yet even with an extension, Parliament will have to take action of some kind. With Labour struggling badly in the polls (at around 26 per cent), the dissenting voices against an election are growing louder.

– Occam’s razor –

One suggestion is that rebel Tories could revive May’s original Brexit deal, with a confirmatory referendum attached. As yet, such a move would not have the support of Corbyn, who still wants an election, but it could be a way out for squeamish MPs.

However, in all the talk of what the rebels might and might not do, it’s worth remembering one thing. It takes a single vote to trigger an election. Anything else requires legislation and, unlike a rushed act to constrain the PM, a referendum bill is not going to be passed in anything other than weeks and months.

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