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The other side of the UK house price/credit bubble

Friday, July 15, 2022 3:43

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The papers are full of articles suggesting that the house price bubble might be about to burst soon. Experience tells us that they are jumping the gun and the next bust is due in 2025 or 2026.

What nobody is talking about yet, but will be from 2025 or 2026 onwards is the next financial crisis. I’ve found a chart here showing that UK banks’ balance sheets have expanded by one-third over the past six years (I tried clicking 25 years, but it won’t go further back than 2010). That is about 2.5 times GDP, about £65,000 per capita for every UK resident, entirely unrelated to economic growth and highly correlated with house price increases. You can’t say which causes which, they are two sides of the same coin:

Source: http://markwadsworth.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-other-side-of-uk-house-pricecredit.html

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