The Analysts’ Horrendous Track Record
The analyst community has never been known for their pinpoint accuracy, but no one can reasonably expect them to be able to perfectly forecast a corporations performance down to the penny. However, the latest study on the analyst community by McKinsey & Company (commentary in the McKinsey Quarterly) shows that they have not even been remotely close to the actual results over the last twenty-five years.
As you can see from the graphic above, analysts have forecasted far better earnings growth than was actually the case. This may seem surprising to some as analysts have undershot earnings over the past four quarters, but the longer term view it is undeniable that analysts are too bullish. To be sure, earnings have rebounded nicely since the spring of 2008, but we have warned investors that a quick return to peak earnings levels may be a bit optimistic. After all, we would expect analysts to revert to their clear historical pattern of overestimating rather than underestimating earnings.
Source: McKinsey & Company (h/t The Pragmatic Capitalist)
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