In a Bearish Market, So how Bearish are We?
How Bearish Are We?
The Bespoke Investment Group wrote today in the article from Seeking Alpha: “Good thing it’s not baseball, because the S&P 500 took another swing at the 200-DMA today and for the third time in a row it whiffed.
Unlike the prior two attempts, however, today the S&P 500 not only failed to cross back above the 200-DMA, but it also reversed and closed right near its lows of the day .”
I believe what is significant here is the move toward the end of the day. Basically it lost all momentum and gave but, bouncing off the 200 day MA as a resistance area to hard to tackle.
So that brings up a good question:
Just how bearish are we?
Here are some statistics for you– According to the Bespoke Investment Group:
- There have been 58 corrections in the Standard & Poor’s 500 since 1927 of 10% or more.
- In 33 of the case, the correction stops short of the 20% that we use as the bear market threshold.
- In those 33 cases the market went on to higher highs.
- 25 times it grew into a full blown bear.
- In the 32 times where the market dropped as much as it has today, it has been favorably bearish.
- In the majority (25 times) the average drop was 35.5%.
So why are financial experts and gurus writing and telling us to be cautious?
Mark Steele, BMO Capital Markets’ head of quantitative and technical research, offers this unequivocal recommendation in the title of his report: “Go to Cash — In Plain English.”
The Baltic Dry Index, a closely watched measure of global demand, has been in sharp decline since peaking less than a month ago, casting doubt on the global economic recovery from the Great Recession.
So it appears that we are truly bearish. Hesitate, be cautious and prudent with your money. It might be time to stay in cash and learn to trade bearishly.
More research with stocks, trades, and market conditions are available at EmpoweredInvestingNow.com
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