Real Estate will Remain a Mess Until its Done!
Yes we are in a housing mess.
Yesterday, the announcement that home sales where no where near what analysts thought sent the markets downward.
This morning, the futures were up thinking the feds where not going to touch interest rates. But now with an early morning announcement from the feds with more gloomy assessment of the economy and weekly job claims loss, the Stock index futures slipped.
It is important to see where we are with housing and what may happen here.
From this chart put out by the National Association of Realtors, we can easily see the huge gap between “Z” (homes sold) and “X” (delinquent mortgages & homes for sale). Now what does this tell us?
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict housing vlaues will continue to move down-ward.
The new home sales did start to recover but then the $8000 tax credit ended nd it has resumed its downward trend. Money was easy to creat for most of early 2001-2006 and with that, housing value inflated and blew up to hieghts that were unreasonable for the market.
The housing market is correcting itself and it does not matter how the government tries to stop it, it is going to correct until it is done. Housing was reasonable and stable for decades and then came the new milenium and we soared. Well, we can’t stay up there forever and now we are correcting.
In April housing sales were up 27% but that was due to the government programs, not the market. Now we have a huge drop in May because the market has come back into play. The hosing market syas its not ready to be huge and propserous yet. It still has correcting to do.
How far will it correct?
Until its done. Iif we look at Japan and we compare ourselves to their bubble, we may have a long time to go. The thing to understand is that our real estate grew wildly for awhile and now it needs to come back down to a stable place. We are in a correction and it will continue until we have a more reasonable balance between homes for sale and homes sold.
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