Friday Will Be a Big Day: Friday Market Outlook (DIA, SPY)
Stock market and ETF outlook for Friday, October 8, 2010 from Wall Street Sector Selector
Instratrader Indicators:
Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral
Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish)
Short Term Trend: Neutral
Tomorrow will be a big day as the much anticipated Non Farm Payroll and unemployment reports come out in the morning and we’ll see if the “bad news is good” trade stays on or not. The ADP report earlier this week was a huge miss, showing private sector jobs declining instead of an anticipated uptick, and, of course, that casts a shadow on Friday’s highlights.
It appears certain now that the Fed will embark on its new quantitative easing program at its November meeting and that the market is already pricing that event into current action. We’ll talk more about this in the weekend update but we are truly “going where no man has gone before,” to quote from the old Star Trek series.
Nobody, including the Fed governors, has a clue as to whether this is going to jumpstart the economy or what the long term ramifications of the Fed buying up this much debt might be. It’s an interesting experiment, to say the least, and certainly seems to be “working” in the sense that it’s helping to prop up asset prices and create artificial demand for Treasury bonds.
It seems quite likely that the market has already priced in the effects of QE2 and so any deviation or disappointment over the next few weeks would likely not be well received.
The “market” is intently focusing on the Fed and believes (hopes) that Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues can save us all from this rapidly decelerating economy. The extent of their success, how long this can go on and where it ends up are all questions that remain unanswered.
However, in my view, there’s something troubling about the notion that the Fed is now one of the largest holders of U.S. debt.
Interesting times, indeed.
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Disclosure: sef, sh, vxx, SPY put option
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