Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook
Daily ETF and Stock Market Outlook from Wall Street Sector Selector
Instratrader Indicators:
Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral
Short Term Market Condition: Oversold (short term bullish)
Short Term Trend: Neutral
Today major indexes saw yet another failed rally at major resistance in spite of all the euphoria over the weekend’s G20 meeting communiqué that was widely seen as a license for the United States to continue trashing its currency and so support “risk on” assets.
As everyone knows by now, a declining dollar has meant a rising stock and commodity market, but today the dollar declined and the equities markets were unable to hold onto meaningful gains.
It increasingly appears that the major factor keeping the market afloat is the anticipated Federal Reserve quantitative easing at its meeting next week with a secondary factor being the notion that the Republicans will reclaim at least the House of Representatives in next week’s election.
It also increasingly appears that both of these events very likely have already been discounted by the market and that market participants could be “selling on the news,” as so often happens.
Overall, this looks more like a top than a bottom when you add up declining breadth and participation by individual stocks, overly bullish investor euphoria and a market that appears to be more sustained by government intervention and support than fundamentals and improving sales and earnings.
The next week will be pivotal on both a technical and fundamental basis. Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the ‘red flag’ mode, expecting lower prices ahead.
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Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Wall Street Sector Selector holds various inverse ETF positions and positions can change at any time.
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