Investors Reloading 12/2/10
With the recent sell off in the US dollar and Treasuries it appears investors are putting risk assets back to work in securities and commodities. A further 1.4% appreciation today with prices in Crude fast approaching the early November highs. On a settlement above $89 in January we should see a print in the mid $90′s in the next few weeks. Aggressive traders could lightly scale into longs in natural gas futures with stops below the recent lows. In the last two sessions the indices have gained 3-3.5%, the 20 day MA should support pullbacks. In the Dow at 11180 and the S&P at 1200. The dollar appears to be rolling over and our forecast is a trade back to 78.00 in the coming weeks. Those in agreement are advised to gain long exposure in the Swissie or Euro-currency. With the ECB extending liquidity in 2011 expect some wild moves. Our advice is exit longs in live cattle as a correction is coming. Aggressive traders could start scaling into longs in February lean hogs with stops below the recent lows…we’ve yet to make a move with clients. An alternative play would be to get long futures and sell out of the money call options at a ratio 1:1. The metals are starting to look toppy…we suggest trailing stops and lightening up on longs as we could see a $1-1.50 depreciation in silver and $30-40 in gold. Continue to scale into longs in agriculture; whether it is corn, soybeans or wheat. Buy dips in cocoa that hold the recent lows…we should see some back and fill action after the 4% pop today. March cotton was limit higher again today picking up 4.12%. On a trade near $1.30 we will be l00king to book profits for clients in March positions.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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