Correction Coming 1/14/11
A number of commodities have traded down and we think there is more to come so trade accordingly. With the holiday on Monday we would remain on the sidelines in Crude until Tuesday. We are willing to explore longs from lower levels but the action today suggests we may be re-entering longs from higher levels with clients…stay tuned. As it stands now we are neutral in Crude and the distillates. Natural gas was sideways for much of the week but a solid base seems to be forming. We will have options trade suggestions next week. Though I don’t agree the indices appear poised for higher ground, we will use pullbacks to cut losses for clients holding March ES put options. The picture in forex is cloudy so we have no trade suggestions, tighten up stops and move to the sidelines on longs and shorts as there is no clear defined patterns. Remain on the sidelines in livestock and plan on getting long from lower levels in lean hogs and live cattle. Silver broke the 50 day MA but did manage to close 35 cents off its lows. Gold helped by being lower by nearly 2% but the 3/2 ratio trade was painful today. Clients can only bear a little more pain until we cut losses. Corn and soybeans reversed higher mid day on a weather report out of South America. Though we expect higher ground in the medium-term we’re still anticipating a setback to get clients long new crop. Cocoa traded higher for the sixth consecutive session closing above the 20 day MA…stay long. We feel sugar, coffee and cotton are all short candidates and we will have some trade suggestions to come next week.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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