Fresh Start 1/3/11
Oil is starting the New Year on a high trading above $92 for the first time since its crash from $145. We’re cautiously bullish thinking we could see $94/95 before any serious correction ensues…trade accordingly. That would correspond to about an 8-10 cent advance in the distillates. Natural gas advanced higher today by 5% on the front month on a technical breakout to 4 1/2 month high. We advised clients to lighten up on their March call spreads and their February/April futures spreads at a profit today. The indices continue to power higher but as a contrarian play we still suspect a correction is just around the corner. Some of our more aggressive clients were advised to buy March ES 1300/1225 put spreads today; the cost was just over $1500/per. Mixed bag in forex today as we see no viable trade strategies at the moment. On our radar are shorts in the Yen, Loonie and Swissie but we’ve yet to make a move on behalf of clients…stay tuned. A correction may be underway in the livestock sector. Select clients have bearish exposure in February live cattle via options and a combination of futures and options in April contracts. We’re looking for 3% move lower in both live cattle and lean hogs and then we will likely start trading from the long side with clients. Still expecting a correction in gold and silver but it may be more prudent to wait for the correction and buy then get short as BEARS have got run over in metals of late. We’re anticipating a minimum of $50 south in gold and $2 in silver from current levels. Most of the soft commodities were closed today in observance of the holiday. What is on our radar is buying cocoa and selling cotton. Ideally today is day one of the correction we’ve been calling for in corn and soybeans, in fact if it wasn’t for the trade in wheat today we feel corn and soybeans would’ve traded even lower. If we get an additional 50 cent break in corn and $1 break in soybeans we would suggest gaining long exposure ahead of January 12th USDA report.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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