Jobs # a non-event 1/7/11
More lost jobs and an unemployment rate that remains well above 9% was shrugged off after the initial fireworks. Crude oil did trade below the 50 day MA for the first time since late November but held on a closing basis. We would suggest starting to scale into longs in both futures and options expecting this correction to be short lived. We’ve yet to re-initiate longs in natural gas but next week if $4.25 continues to support the February contract we should have some bullish trade suggestions. Two negative days in the indices but in order to confirm that a set back is truly underway we would like to see a settlement below the 20 day MA’s; in the Dow 11500 and in the S&P 1250. The US dollar has had an impressive run this week but we expect the same level that capped the move in November should serve as solid resistance just above 82.00. As long as the 20 day MA’s continue to hold on a closing basis aggressive traders can remain long live cattle and lean hogs. The momentum remains down in both gold and silver though we feel about 3/4 of the down cycle is complete. Likely on lower trade next week we would advise covering shorts and getting long. Aggressive traders could get long 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds with stops below the recent lows. Next week we will be looking to be a buyer on next years soybeans and corn contracts ahead of the USDA report for clients. We’re expecting 15-20 cents more in corn and 30-45 more in soybeans. Use the near 7% depreciation in cocoa to be a buyer; our suggestion is in future and options in May contracts. Continue to sell rallies in cotton and coffee as well. Our targets are $2-2.20 in March coffee and $1.30 in March cotton.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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