Turmoil puts Commodities in the Spotlight 1/28/11
Turmoil gets energies, metals, and currencies back in the spotlight. The commotion overseas contributed to Crude oil racing higher today gaining 3-4% depending on the month. March closed back over the 50 day MA. From here buys dips in April and May as we should be back at the highs in coming weeks. The strength in Crude should spillover into the distillates as well so hedgers make sure you start gaining exposure for next year’s deliveries. The NASDAQ and S&P closed below the 20 day MA today and the Dow just above that pivot point. Aggressive traders could re-establish bearish plays. Our favored play is March ES bear put spreads with a target of 1240. A doji star followed by a bullish engulfing candle in the dollar should get traders long the green back. We suggest remaining short the Pound and Euro looking for lower ground. We think the bull market still has legs in lean hogs and live cattle but only suggest gaining exposure in live cattle and waiting for a larger pull back in lean hogs before buying. Finally the action we’ve been looking for in metals…silver was higher by 3.4% and gold 1.3%. Traders should be gaining long exposure as we feel an interim low is in. Increased momentum higher should lift silver to back near $30 and gold near $1380. If forced into grains we would rather be short than long. Our plan is to be a buyer of corn and soybeans for clients from lower levels. Cocoa was lower by 2.4% today we think another 3-5% decline is coming next week. We just missed limit orders to get short cotton today for clients. Next week we will be trying to gain bearish exposure in May contracts…stay tuned. Coffee ended the week strong gaining 3.4% today. We have July put options with clients willing to ride this trade out for now.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results
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