Waiting game for NFP 1/6/11
A lower high and lower low today should signal more downside in Crude oil is to come. We’ve completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a 50% would drag February to $86.60, a 61.8% to $85.40. We would still like to see more downside and perhaps a consolidation before advising clients to purchase natural gas again; that level is expected to be 20-30 cents lower than current pricing. Nothing new to report in the indices…they appear overbought but have for several weeks. Maybe a surprise in tomorrow’s NFP could be the game changer. Four days running in the US dollar today having advanced 2.3% lifting prices to a four week high. We still feel the best way to play a strengthening dollar is by shorting other crosses. The best candidates in our opinion are the Euro, Swissie and Yen at these levels. Aggressive traders can start layering longs in livestock in either lean hogs or live cattle as long as the 20 day MA’s hold. Gold has lost $55 in the last three sessions but the momentum could take prices even lower…the jobs number tomorrow should determine that. On the downside we feel the next significant support is $1337. Inside day in silver today with prices marginally lower. We would need to rake out the 20 day MA at $29.60 tomorrow to want to gain long exposure with clients. Our downside target remains a trade below $28 in the coming sessions. Corn and soybeans gave back virtually all their gains from their previous session. We would like a trade 20-30 cents lower in corn and 50-70 cents lower in soybeans to be a buyer next week for clients ahead of the USDA report. Today we advised clients to start taking profits on their December 11′/March 11′ corn spreads. Cotton nearly closed own limit today as we hope some followers faded the recent rally as suggested. Sugar gave up just over 6% as prices should break 5-10% more in the coming weeks.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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