A Sluggish Day 2/2/11
No real significant action today as most markets appear to be waiting for some catalyst. A potential flag and pennant formation may be in the making in Crude oil, see a daily chart. Continue to use the 50 day and 100 day MA’s as support. Natural gas has been consolidating for the last four sessions; we favor a break lower but would consider trading the breakout. Above $4.50 would indicate a trade higher and under $4.25 would signal a probe lower. We expect the indices to pause until Friday’s unemployment report and then based on the outcome make its way to higher or lower ground. We do not suggest any allocation at these levels. Some clients still hold March ES put options and are currently under water. The dollar was able to trade higher today; only the fourth positive session in the last eighteen. Brave traders should continue to fade rallies in the Euro and Cable. Intra-day live cattle traded off 2%…we advised clients to start scaling into April contracts. As long as the 20 day MA continues to support we will remain long with clients as we anticipate a new contract high. We remain friendly in the metals but would like to see a trade above the 50 day MA in silver and 100 day MA in gold. Wheat, corn and soybeans all printed new contract highs today. We still want a trade lower to get aggressive clients long ahead of next week’s USDA report. Those interested in playing interest rates should consider bearish exposure in the short end of the curve trading late 11′ or early 12′ Euro-dollar contracts. Weather concerns aided in sugars advance to a thirty year high today. It is scary selling into the strength as we would only suggest options exposure but clients have been advised to buy bearish option strategies in both coffee and cotton.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results
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