Gains and Pains 2/18/11
Depending on your positioning traders experienced gains and pains this week with wild swings in both directions. The 100 day MA held on the week in Crude oil and if we can overcome the 50 day next week we should see fresh contract highs. Our favored trades are scaling into futures a few months out or purchasing July $5 bull call spreads. Natural gas was down marginally on the week but as long as the lows from the Fall hold we suggest lightly scaling into longs. Clients were buyers of May 50 cent bull call spreads this week. The indices continue to climb the wall of worry making fresh 2 1/2 year highs. Bulls remain in control…I remain perplexed but have given up fighting this trend. The US dollar should continue lower so aggressive traders can probe the long side of all crosses with the exception of the Loonie as we could see a retracement after the 1.4% appreciation in recent weeks. Clients remain on the sidelines in livestock looking to buy a break in lean hogs and live cattle. Gold is overbought and the move in silver has become parabolic. Both metals in the medium term should see higher ground but we’re sticking to our guns a correction first. Some clients established bearish option plays in April gold this week anticipating a trade back near $1335/1345. When I checked last evening cotton was up limit and by the day’s end today prices had reversed to be down limit…a key reversal…stay tuned. For several weeks now we’ve been advising bearish option plays in cotton and coffee, could we finally be getting a break? Agriculture should trade lower across the board; corn, soybeans and wheat. We continue to think buying new crop corn on this break is the best strategy. Chart damage was done in soybeans and wheat so we expect more downside in those two crops than corn…trade accordingly.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results
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