A Much Needed Break 3/23/11
Not in the markets but me as my blood pressure had been on the rise I’m off for two much needed days. Crude has advanced five out of the last six sessions and is trading back near the contract highs. The bulls remain in control but we would not rule out a sell off on a dollar bounce in the coming sessions so lighten up and tighten stops. We’re not advocating bearish plays but booking partial profits would be our suggestion. Natural gas put on an additional 2% today, which marks just over a 15% appreciation in three weeks. We’ve advised clients already to book profits on longs and will be looking to buy back in on a retracement. We are on the sidelines in the indices but forced into the market we would be buyers as our upside target in the Dow is 12,300 and 1325 in the S&P. If our assessment is correct we would expect the debt complex to melt down; our favored play is bearish positioning in 10-yr notes and Euro-dollars with clients. The green back should get a relief rally and we suggest bearish plays in the Euro, Pound and Yen. Our targets are as follows: 1.3700/1.3800, 1.6000 and 1.2000. We advised clients to book profits if they have them in live stock (lean hogs and live cattle) and step to the sidelines. Most of our clients got out of their live cattle at a scratch. New three decade high in silver and we’re on the cusp of a record high in gold. We blew this one leaving way too premature on longs but there will be opportunities to get long at lower levels in our opinion. Continue to fade rallies in cotton and coffee via put options. Cotton lost 2% today and coffee 1.75%. Ag trading of late has been sloppy but continue to scale into new crop contracts ahead of plating intentions on 3/31. New trade recommendation today…buy July CBOT wheat /sell July KCBOT wheat on a futures spread.
I WILL BE OUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL RESUME WITH REGULAR POSTS NEXT MONDAY…HAPPY TRADING!!
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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