As goes Japan… 3/15/11
Japan’s situation and the overall panic in the marketplace overnight was a game changer. My perception is we could see some dramatic moves for a few days and traders/investors should take advantage of this. We’re advising aggressive clients to buy into Crude as prices have depreciated nearly $10/barrel in the last week. The play we suggested is June or July via bull call spreads. We remain friendly to natural gas which was one of the few commodities that remained positive today. The indices broke hard overnight coming down to test the 50 day MA. Take off all remaining shorts and now start to look for long exposure if that level holds; in the Dow at 11600 and at 1255 in the S&P. The Yen is a buy on dips and the Euro and Pound are sales on rallies…only my opinion. Live cattle was down limit today, less than ideal timing as we started to work long with some clients yesterday. We remain bullish but would like to see the trend line at 112.50 in June hold. Gold hit out downside objective (see previous posts) as we advised shorts to reverse and get long thinking $1425 in April from here. Aggressive clients were buyers of June bull call spreads. Silver was lower by nearly 4%, there could be more downside but trail stops. Blood bath in softs today: cocoa a loser by 4%, sugar nearly 8%, cotton down the daily limit and coffee by nearly 4%. We favor bearish exposure across this complex and have clients in bearish cotton and coffee positions. Agriculture did not escape the S-^t storm either with several grains in the complex down limit. We are holding onto losing positions for clients in corn and will be buying more thinking this dip is too dramatic and temporary. Our conviction remains buying dips in Agriculture ahead of the USDA report at month’s end. NOB spreads (short 30-yr bonds and long 10-yr notes) continues to work. Use the recent spike in Euro-dollars to get short futures of long dated contracts or to purchase put options.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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