Commodity Update 3/22/11
The 20 day MA held in Crude oil again today as a bullish engulfing candle was formed in today’s session. From here we will likely challenge the highs approximately $3 from today’s close. A six week high was obtained today in natural gas with the 2.4% surge today. We could see momentum lift prices higher but we suggest tightening stops and lighten up as easy money has been made on longs. We will need to see a penetration of the 50 day MA in the coming sessions or we would suggest abandoning longs…tighten up stops. Currencies were flat today…our bearish sentiment exists in the Yen and Euro. Both live cattle and lean hogs were higher in today’s session. We continue to like bullish exposure in June contracts expecting new contract and record highs. Gold was flat but silver gained for the fifth consecutive session fast approaching the contract highs. We recommend the sidelines on both metals. Cotton was higher by the daily limit today, we continue to suggest bearish exposure to clients but only via options. Our bearish bias remains in coffee as well which gave up just over 1.0% today closing back under the 20 day MA. Continue to buy dips in new crop corn, wheat and soybeans. In the treasury complex we feel the two best plays are bearish exposure in 10-yr notes and longer dated Euro-dollar contracts.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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