One more in Q1 3/30/11
After today’s close we are down to one more trading day and Quarter 1 is behind us. How is your performance? A higher high and higher low in Crude in today’s action…my gut says higher trade but as I said yesterday it is a coin toss. We suggest waiting for further direction before committing to a larger position. The 100 day MA has held the last two sessions in natural gas; in May at $4.25. We anticipate a breach and a trade back near $4 in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. The S&P has rallied nearly 100 points and the Dow 1,000 points in the last two weeks. Longs book profits as we’ve become overbought and the easy money has been made for the bulls. We advised clients to exit their bearish positions in the Yen today and will be looking for an exit in the Euro on lower trade in the coming sessions. Continue to buy dips in lean hogs and live cattle that are supported by their 20 day MA’s…for now in June contracts. Gold trade higher by .50% and silver an additional 1.2% appreciation today. A relief rally perhaps but as long as we do not make fresh highs we expect a pullback. On a new high we will likely cut losses on clients gold shorts. Today’s decrease in cocoa puts the correction over 20%…we suggest scaling into longs and see July cocoa back at 3300 in the coming weeks. We’ve yet to commit any client capital but bullish plays in sugar #11 are back on our radar…stay tuned. The USDA planting intentions is issued before tomorrow’s grain open, this number tells us what type of allocation farmers intend on allotting to specific crops. We will go into the report for the most part neutral in corn and bullish soybeans. Today aggressive clients bought November soybean calls. As long as the 40 day MA holds in 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds aggressive traders could be long expecting a bounce in the coming sessions. We have no positions on at the moment for clients in either instrument.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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