S&P 500 ETF- SPY High Volume on Bearish Run Begs Caution
Technically Speaking-
We are going into the third week of our consolidation and we have built a nice foundation at about 129.8. We see usual things with consolidation the RSI and the MACD are pointing out weakness and this is pretty normal when a chart consolidates like this. The one thing we really should take notice of is the volume chart. Usually, we have lower volume when the stock is in resting period like this. But on increased volume this may be more than resting, we might have topped out just above 134.
This might be the beginning of our down trend because of creased volume that we are seeing right now.
Other Market Influences-
On March 11, the markets got some more bad news in the form of higher than expected inflation in China and fewer job openings in the United States, which will not help with the recent trend to avoid risk. According to Bloomberg:
Today’s reports signaled the central bank’s monetary tightening has been insufficient so far to contain prices, in an echo of pressures across Asia that spurred South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam to raise interest rates this week. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today interest rates will be used to curb inflation, and played down the role of currency gains, which U.S. officials have encouraged China to use.
Copper — another major leading indicator — has also been quite weak the past few weeks, and yesterday was punched in the gut. It also has broken down below the 50-day moving average over the past week. In “normal” markets, these sort of events would be serious warning flags. The current market acts very abnormal, so I don’t know if they hold the same sway, but you have to go with historical references unless you want to just fly blind and believe in the mantra that the Fed is an omnipresent being (which in time will be shown to be false). So until proven otherwise, we have mounting yellow flags to heed.
John Mylant is an Investment Coach specializing in safely designed Credit Spread trades growing income steadily and consistently on a weekly basis to the tune of 75% to 120% per year. To learn more about him click here.
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