S&P 500 ETF- SPY Watch Rising Wedge Pattern

Technically Speaking-
We have just broken through an upward wedge. In many cases the price will rise to a clear apex, and in some cases, it will actually push through the top of the formation. However, once price breaks out of the wedge to the downside, they often begin to decline quite rapidly. Trading volume in a wedge follows the common rule of diminishing gradually as the price moves towards the apex.
We also have been trading a lot tighter on our options because we have had diminishing volatility for the whole week. Look for it to break here soon. We will see if we break through the down side of our wedge now.
Other Market Influences-
Finally, market confidence seems out of whack, overly complacent … bad jobless claims, bad durables even ex Transportation, awful housing numbers for both new and existing, oil at $105-plus, and several companies already providing very sober guidance after which their stocks got hammered (Walgreen (WAG), Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX), Cree (CREE) … and yet the market is up strong!
The market has a big run, investors get complacent, then unexpected events throw everyone for a loop, and fear takes over. It happened with Greece last year. Several months later, the market took off and kept rising until the latest panic began. James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, dubbed the phenomenon “Armageddon hypochondria,” fear that the end of the world — or at least another market crash — is nigh.
He said the S&P 500 is trading at a very reasonable 13.5 times estimates for the next 12 months, “about the same [multiple] as it was in March 2009.” His target is 1,425 by the end of the year, from around 1,300 now. And with his estimate of peak S&P earnings of $130 a share (estimates call for $95-96 this year), plus some expansion in the multiple, Paulsen thinks we can top the record high of 1,565 “over the next couple of years.”
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