Almost A Double Top On The Dow

The charts point to a rally tomorrow… which sounds crazy too me, but the gangsters control the non-farm payroll report data, so you should expect it to cause the market to rally.  Yeah it sucks, but what do you expect from thieves?  You know they are going to steal your money, so while logic says we should break the rising wedge and sell off… you know they won’t let it happen.  Maybe next week the Bears will get to feast?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTnRddcREE4)

Red

Which means that rally isn’t over just yet…

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2DN8QGa4Ts)

But, I think we will dip down in the morning a little first, and then push up and close that SPY gap at 133.50, as well as hit the VIX FP of 17.25, and finally hit the double top on the DOW.  Of course it’s likely that we will have an intraday pierce of the current high of 12,391.25, but we should fail to close above it on the first attempt.

I was really expecting a gap up and crap move today, but the gangsters once again tricked us all with their monopoly money used to push this pile of bull crap up higher all day long.  We all know that this thing is really going to collapse hard when the gangsters pull the POMO out this June (or sooner?), but I’m still expecting some type of decent move down before then.

Since the market is so close to a double top on the Dow, it should hit it before selling off.  Anytime the market gets that close to a double top, it rarely doesn’t hit it.  In fact, most of the time it will pierce it slightly (to trap bulls into thinking it’s a breakout), and then sell off for awhile.  On the daily chart, we should see a multiple day sell off after hitting it.  Then the next time it goes up to that level it will likely breakthrough for real.

Since we have until June with the POMO money manipulating the market up, we should expect the FP of 138.86 spy to be hit.  It’s not the guaranteed high of course, but instead just a target that “they” said they plan to take the market too… we could continue higher after hitting it, and pulling back?  Remember what happen with the DIA 118.16 FP… we hit it, sold off for one day, and then pushed higher.

Meaning, we only know that “if” the FP is real, then we will probably hit that level well before June, as again… that’s when the free money runs out!  But for now, we should see some selling come very soon.  Starting with tomorrow morning, as I fully expect the 60 and 30 minute charts to push this market down early on.

However, I’ve said that before and been surprised when the market rallied first (from the 15 and 5 minute charts), and didn’t allow the 30 and 60 to go negative until later when all the charts lined up together pointing down.  So, it’s also possible that they could gap it up in the morning on those 2 shorter charts, at which point they would quickly get overbought.

Then we should see all 4 of them rollover and push the market down into the close.  The daily is overbought too, but could go either way at this point.  If the 60 and 30 push the market down hard, the daily will follow.  The best thing the bears could hope for is a gap up tomorrow morning, as it’s got extremely low odds of holding.

As for how far down we go… that’s another story.

Kevin made a valid point that it looks like we are forming an “inverse Head and Shoulders” pattern on the daily chart.  This means that the coming sell off could just put in the right shoulder of this H&S pattern, which would be a higher low then the 1249 spx low.

The other possibility is that we start a Wave 3 down, as many Elliottwave people see it.  This would mean that the market would have too take out the 1249 low and put in a lower low.  Which one is accurate?  I don’t know?  The stronger move for the “bullish” case would be to go down in a wave 3 and bounce off the 200ma (current around 1193) on the daily chart.

This would allow the daily histogram bars to put in a positive divergence by forming a higher low, which would allow for a nice rally up to the 138.86 FP over the coming months.  This would also allow the weekly chart to get oversold on the Full STO’s, and put in a nice ABC move down.

The more “bearish” side would be to fulfill the H&S pattern and then rally higher to the 138.86 print.  This would then come much soon, possibly by mid-to-late April, as opposed to May or June.  Too me, the move up would be too fast and un-sustainable.

A lower low put in would give the bulls more time to push up slowly to the FP level, as opposed to another rocket ride straight up.  With all the negative news in the world today, I just can’t see another straight up move.  But, we all know that the gangsters manipulate this market to steal our money and trick us at every corner.  So… expect the unexpected!

This means you shouldn’t throw out the possibility of an inverse H&S pattern forming instead of Wave 3 down.  Just take it one day at a time, and hopefully we can figure out which is accurate when we cross that road.  For now, just look for the double top on the Dow to be hit (possibly tomorrow?) and the VIX FP of 17.25… and finally the SPY gap fill at 133.50 (from February 21st/22nd).

Good luck…

Red

 

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Almost A Double Top On The Dow was first posted on March 30, 2011 at 7:54 pm.
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