Commodities Corner 4/14/11
Higher high and higher low in Crude today…we could get a slight bounce from here but aggressive traders are advised to fade this rally as $102/103 is our target in the June contract. Natural gas picked up 2% today but will need to clear the 100 day MA to see further upside. We are long July futures and call spreads for some clients with a target of $4.45/4.50. Equities as of this post are holding onto slight gains but we do not expect much upside from here. Our bearish bias still exists as we feel another 2-4% drop is still due in the coming weeks. The greenback posted a fresh 2011 low but did not fall off the cliff we had anticipated…stay tuned as the next few days action will be crucial. A new currency trade was issued today…long (1) Yen futures against short (1) Euro futures. We’re expecting this spread to come in 200-300 points in the coming days. Lean hogs are back above the 20 day MA and live cattle likely will be tomorrow. We suggest buying dips in both, for now June contracts. Gold is higher by 1.4% as of this post trading within spitting distance of new record highs and silver leaped over 4%. Bulls have had a wild ride…it’s unfortunate we’ve missed a large portion of the most recent move for clients. All I can do is bow my hat. Cocoa picked up nearly 2% as the appreciation we’ve been calling for is underway. Our target remains 3300 in July. Aggressive traders can continue to short cotton…today marks the fifth consecutive loser. Look to trade the July or December contracts. We would suggest waiting for lower entries for outright longs in agriculture though soybean meal is on our radar and starting to look more attractive. The CBOT/KCBOT wheat spread worked nicely today…finally. The Treasury complex could not make it four in a row but we still favor longs in both 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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