Long Weekend Ahead 4/21/11
Four trading days behind us and now a three day weekend…Happy Easter Y’all. Crude finished up for the third consecutive session closing at a two week high. We have a small bearish play on with some clients that are currently carrying a loss. We will ride it out but do not wish to establish new positions long or short at the moment. Nearly a 10% appreciation in natural gas in the last two weeks was good enough for a nice long trade for some of our energy trading clients. We advised traders to take their remaining longs in futures and options off today. We will likely look to re-establish bullish plays on a setback. Clients are carrying a loss on their June ES bear put spreads still looking for a retracement to pare the position. We will cut losses on a new high settlement or a trade back near 1300 we may sneak out a “W”. We have nothing new to report in currencies but the sentiment in our opinion is getting way to negative to the dollar so we could get a snap back…just saying. Shorts in the Loonie remain on our radar especially after today’s action. Again we failed to penetrate the 20 day MA in live cattle…we advised clients to move to the sidelines taking a small loss on their longs. Gold settled above $1500/ounce and silver appreciated nearly 5%…this makes it 24% in the month of April. I would’ve been better off putting all my clients money in silver and taken the next few months off! I expect a similar pace on the downside but from what level $50…60…70 who knows? We continue to like cocoa and sugar and have positioned clients long July cocoa and long July and October sugar…trade accordingly. Hold off on corn entries for now but aggressive traders could buy dips in wheat, soybeans or soybean meal. Our favored pick remains July soybean meal. We’ve shifted from bulls to bears in the debt complex in the long end of the curve. Aggressive traders could get short 10-yr notes with a target of 118’16 in June futures.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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