Managing the Trade 4/20/11
In this environment it is as important as ever to cut losses and take profits. Crude gained nearly 3% today…we’re wrong being short with clients going to the well one too many times. We will be cutting losses on a retracement. The 20 day MA should serve as solid support in June at $108.30. Natural gas appreciated another 1% today as we’re nearing out target, on a further acceleration we will be lightening up and booking profits for clients who are long. The indices will gain 1-5-2% today erasing all of the weeks losses and taking prices back near their recent highs. On a trade back near 1300 in the coming sesison in the S&P we will advise clients to step to the sidelines. The greenback got hit posting fresh lows as all crosses appreciated significantly today. The standouts being the Aussie and Euro. We’d previously been fading rallies and all things considered we would cease from this strategy and take a loss on the next set back. A large range in livestock but at the end of the day there was very little change in pricing. We suggest buying dips in live cattle as we expect a 3-4% appreciation. We’re trading June and December for clients in both futures and options. Insanity I tell you in the metals but longs continue to clean up with gold higher by $7 and silver $1.28 as of this post. When will it end I have not a clue and anyone who tells you they do is full of it. Enjoy the ride but recognize all good things come to an end. Cocoa gained 1.27% today while sugar popped 3.83%. As for softs some clients are long both cocoa and sugar with a target of 3330 and 25.00 respectively. Key reversal in corn today as it appears we will attempt to fill the gap in the charts. Stand aside and look to buy corn from lower levels. We advised clients to take profits on their soybean meal. As for new entries buy dips in wheat as we may get a break out lifting prices 5% higher. Book profits on all remaining longs in 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes!
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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