Positioning for the FOMC 4/25/11
Brace for the Fed as we expect it to be a market mover. Indecision in the oil market as prices close virtually unchanged today. If we fail to make a new contract high in the next few sessions we should resume the set back we’ve been forecasting, in June that would be a trade over $114.05. A settlement below the 20 day MA should confirm a move lower but before either scenario happens we’re just guessing, that level is $108.90 in June WTI. We suggest the sidelines in natural gas willing to be a seller on a spike higher. We cut losses for clients that still held bear put spreads in the June ES; it resulted in a loss of approximately $400/per position including fees. Inside day in the dollar today which is far from a victory but the bleeding has subsided for now. We caution getting too bearish at these levels as a short squeeze is likely…in our opinion. Lean hogs and live cattle are getting the correction we forecast last week. For now stand aside and look to re-establish longs from lower levels. Record highs in gold and silver as momentum lifts prices 0.25% and 2.0% higher respectively. For what its worth we think when a correction happens in gold and silver it will be violent! Preliminary signs of an interim top in silver today include a significant volume spike, failure to maintain at a record high and investor sentiment getting overly bullish. Aggressive traders opted to get slightly bearish silver today via July 1:2 ratio put spreads. On a trade through 24/cents in July sugar we will advise clients to book profits on their longs. Some clients opted to offset positions today at B/E. On the move higher in agriculture today we advised clients to book profits on their soybean meal longs and to start getting short corn. We feel the July contract could break 40-55 cents lower in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. Fade this rally in the Treasury market as long as 30-yr bonds stay below 122’00 and 10-yr notes do not close above 121’00.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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