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Humbling Markets 5/3/11

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I will bring up silver  an example of markets that do not go in a straight line….Crude Oil traded below the 20 day MA but closed just above 110.75. We maintain our bearish bias anticipating a trade near 108 in the coming sessions. The distillates also traded lower today with heating oil getting hit the hardest losing nearly 2%. We recommended a natural gas futures spread today, buying December futures and selling June futures 1:1. Day two in the correction of the indices, this could be the start of a correction to the 50 day MA; which is 1330 in the S&P and 12440 in the Dow. If the dollar moves north from here, which we do expect, look for weakness in the Euro, Pound, and Aussie…echoing yesterday’s comments. Aggressive clients hold short positions in those three currencies via futures or options. Lean Hogs traded limit down today losing over 3%. We are still waiting for signs of an interim bottom to be a buyer…stay tuned.  After another 2-3% correction in live cattle we will be looking to re-establish longs for clients in December contracts. Gold closed down just over 1% and silver nearly 8% on today’s session. A large contributing factor to silver’s decline was the CME raising trading margins for the third time within the last week. We anticipate further weakness and will be selling rallies in both metals.  Nothing new to report in the softs or agriculture markets. Treasuries continue to trade higher but now with whispers from the Fed on a possible rate increase continue to sell into the strength. Our favorite plays remain selling 10-yr notes and Eurodollars.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

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