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Ten Years From Now

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For those that wish to look ahead a little further than the next trade I thought I would spend some time with the longer term outlook. Where will we be in the next decade? After all what’s the point of making these trades and trying to position yourself for the future if there is no future. That premise seems simple enough.

So let’s assume that the Grand Mega Economic Supercycle manages to clean out our excesses and rearranges our landscape without destroying the majority of this earth’s inhabitants putting us into some form of neo-ice-age. I think that most readers inherently want this planet to not only survive but to continue to transform itself in a more favorable direction.

This is what Supercycles are known for….HOWEVER….A bear market of Grand Supercycle scale should be of sufficient magnitude to be accompanied by a severe economic recession. The last Grand Supercycle was terminated by the bursting of the South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Bubble in 1720. This was followed by a period of economic stagnation which lasted over 50 years, which is longer than the length of the Great Depression. If the Grand Supercycle theory is correct then the magnitude of the current recession should be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression, and possibly of greater magnitude than the severe economic recession from the 1720s–1770s that terminated the previous Grand Supercycle of the Renaissance.

I wish to challenge this. I want to look at this from the standpoint of the underlying changes in technology and the impact that this can have on how we come out of this in terms of the timeline and in terms of what the “other side” may look like.

Do I think the next five to ten years will be ugly? Yes….but what will be driving force out of this? Of course it will be technology……and it will be an exponential change in areas of nanotechnology…biotechnology….and artificial intelligence that drive us over the next ten years.

We now have billions of computers in the hands of young minds all over the world. When you place that much power in that many hands you are going to find that the explosion of advances and innovation will be astounding during the next decade and beyond. Imagine villages and cities in developing nations with intellects that previously were left to lie fallow without the benefit of attending the finest western universities to contribute the next “great thing”. Now we will see what happens when you marry the internet, the cloud, and exloding chip capacity with Ruwanda.

Look at the abysmal failure of our own “higer” educational system to adapt to changing planet. How did we take some of our greatest institutions into the twemtu first century? Well one absolute anchor created from a “wealth in decadence” standpoint was the LEGACY system in these famous institution. Enormous percentages (as high as 50% in some institutions) are filled before any application is made. That’s how George W. Bush was able to attend Yale and Harvard…..I wonder who missed that slot.

With the connectivity and computer generating capacity available now we no longer are going to depend on this antiquated educational system for our “next change”. That change is already happening and will explode during the next ten years. The “social medias” are where a lot of this will emanate from. In fact the “social media” is being created by “college dropouts”. We will be able to marry pockets of innovation through our connectivity to provide the an exponential move to actual development and production. We have countries with enormous populations of engineers and labor that are eager to begin the for example the “next generation” of solar panes and wind turbines and fuel cells etc.

The same breakthroughs in speed of change in medicine is occurring with biotechnology. Look at how rapidly the outbreak of swine flu was contained. Literally stopping its spread with the vaccine developed and IMPLEMENTED in just a matter of a few months.

Many aspects of this change are going to provide a threat to the current regimes and political structure of the PTB. They will have to adapt and I am sure they will. You and I as investors must see the future. Near term its going to be ugly but if we get through this the opportunities are going to be enormous. The next Google…the next MSFT…the next Facebook….they will be bought for pennies on the dollar during the next few years. Some kid sitting on the Serengetti may be dreaming the next “big thing” on his computer. We have to get through to the other side first. gl all

Read more at Great Depression 2


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