USD rally supporting markets
With Europe in turmoil on the debt markets, and the Euro suffering, China, the Mid East, Asia, Europe all are finding some haven in US markets. One thing that is rather outlying is that commodities rallied along with US stocks. Even though China is slowing and this information is being censored some, basic commodities have suffered a great deal in the last year.
Tracking currencies, the USD is the big winner and the Euro shows a lot of weakness. That would not be a surprise give their sovereign debt situation which is still unresolved and another fateful date is March 2012 when Greece has to roll over another ton of paper debt.
April 25 we called the USD bottom and a rally and the silver bubble peak. Since then, the USD has rallied consistently after hitting close to 71 on the USDX and is flirting in the 80s now. Soon after the silver and gold bubble broke and basic commodities like copper got hammered. That is also in line with the peak of the Chinese real estate/construction bubble in Fall 2011, which is being barely reported. That basic equation is not commodity friendly.
The currencies responded accordingly during this phase, with the Yen rallying (leverage unwinding of the carry trade) and the BOJ jumping in to stem its rally at great cost. In a basic sense you can track currency moves on a large scale based on the economic effect of major moves. The Yen rallied because markets wanted to unwind, from an older economic paradigm, IE the manufacturing economy becoming – well over leveraged.
Even if commodities rally, the Euro will remain pressured unless Europe rebounds and we feel the Euro is overvalued. It is struggling to hold 1.30 USD and in fact we feel the Euro right now is really worth about 1.15 USD but is being supported by the central banks. Well eventually that will come home to roost.
There is more to say, and we at PrudentSquirrel track gold, and currencies and commodities, and you can stop by and have a look at
www.PrudentSquirrel.com
Copyright 2012
Christopher Laird
Editor
Prudentsquirrel.com
Disclaimer
Copyright 2012
Christopher Laird
Editor in Chief
www.PrudentSquirrel.com
Disclaimer: Chris Laird is not an investment advisor/professional. This article, and the PrudentSquirrel newsletter and alerts, are general market commentary only. They are not intended as specific advice. You should talk to your own investment professionals for specific advice. Information here is deemed reliable but should be verified by you if you think it’s important.
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