friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up rally on black friday enthusiasm, DOW +173

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher over the holiday, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1397. The SPX had closed at 1391 on friday. Within the first half hour the SPX dipped to 1396, and then hit 1404 by 10:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 1401 by 12:30, the market rallied to end the holiday shortened session at SPX 1409.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold rallied $22, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open today. Then, except for a couple of small pullbacks, it rallied for the rest of the day. The rally from last friday’s SPX 1343 low has now travelled 66 points. This is by far the best rally since the Sept/Oct high. The short term pattern displays five waves up SPX: 1361-1351-1390-1377-1409, with the first wave the shortest. Another positive. Also this market has generated a WROC buy signal. These signals normally precede uptrend confirmations, and are 96% accurate during bull markets.

Short term support rises to SPX 1402/03 and 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and 1422/27. Short term momentum spiked to a new high for the rally, and is now extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1375, with the swing level now around 1384. Enjoy the rest of this holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Filed under: Updates