ECONOMIC HAIR TRIGGER

What happens when you have the largest economies all printing their own currencies in quantities that defy imagination to prevent a deflationary economic collapse? When does the sovereign interest of one of the super-powers over-ride the interest of the whole? In other words, what happens when someone with a hair trigger pulls off the first shot heard round the world?

Is it possible for countries with disparate national interest to maintain a technocratic alliance as the transfer of world domination slowly transfers from West to East? Can the mutual interests currency debasement outweigh the more selfish interest of accumulation of real assets for longer term national dominance as you print you fiat in ever increasing amounts? Look at this another way then, are you willing as a nation to allow your “beggar thy neighbor” to fill their coffers with loot such as real estate, iron ore, aluminum, copper, precious metals, rare metals, and oil, while you maintain your “steady as she goes” fiat printing?  Are your intelligence assets not telling you what is going on with your technocratic “alliance” partner? Sure they are. 

So what do you do? Do you continue the process? You just printed 8 Trillion this past year and you were lapped by your historic nemesis by 10 Trillion. You wanted to devalue your currency to try and extract yourself from decades (plural) stagnation and your “beggar thy neighbor” just plugged you in the behind by 10 Trillion and your currency has barely budged. Your nemesis loaded up on even more energy and commodities to insure their countries future and you plugged deflationary holes. They thumbed you in the eye when you embarked on some nationalistic island hopping and then one-upped you by declaring the entire sea was now owned by them as your Western technocratic super power stood by and sucked their thumb with “Lurch” issuing idle threats to further sand-kicking by your nemesis. 

This is a very tenuous alliance between super-powers that have ZERO love for one another and a history of animosity that has fed numerous bloody conflicts, yet this is what the balance of this faux recovery hinges on. I predict that you are going to see some very uncomfortable defaults taking place soon and for these defaults to be “covered” there will be some VERY severe sacrifices that one of these countries will be asked to make. That word “sacrifice” will begin to take on a new and very desperate meaning as the “global alliances” begin to feel the stress of a history of blood and conflict bearing pressure upon the technocratic leaders. Will it hold…..or will someone pull the trigger?