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How High Can Gold Miner ETFs Go In 2014?

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Jordan Roy-Byrne: In recent months we compared the bear market in gold stocks to bear markets of the past. Readers were probably getting sick of seeing our bear analogs chart which made the case that a major bottom was coming. The good news is the major bottom is in and now we can compare the current recovery with past recoveries. GDX and GDXJ continue to form a very bullish bottoming pattern and we want to see how their measured targets (and potential upside) mesh with historical recoveries.

The following chart plots GDX and GDXJ as well as their 400-day moving average, one of my favorite long-term moving averages. Both markets could be forming reverse head and shoulder bottoming patterns. The necklines are the next resistance targets at $30 for GDX and $51 for GDXJ. These targets could coincide in the near future with the declining 400-day moving averages. The left shoulder of the pattern was formed in June 2013 and the head was formed in December. The right shoulder could be formed from a pullback from those aforementioned targets. The pattern projects to upside targets of $40 for GDX and $73 for GDXJ.

Next, we plot the same markets on a monthly chart. The next major (or multiyear) resistance for GDX and GDXJ are essentially the same upside targets from the potential head and shoulders patterns.

The targets equate to a 100% rebound for GDX and over a 150% rebound for GDXJ. This seems excessive but history argues otherwise.

(…)Click here to continue reading the original ETFDailyNews.com article: How High Can Gold Miner ETFs Go In 2014? [Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust]
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Source: http://etfdailynews.com/2014/02/14/how-high-can-the-gold-miner-etfs-go-in-2014/


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