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Pershing Square modifies their performance numbers with an eight day week

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Pershing Square (the hedge fund associated with Bill Ackman) has a European listed closed-end fund called Pershing Square Holdings.
Pershing Square Holdings has a website on which it discloses weekly and monthly net asset value and performance.  This performance matches the returns of Bill Ackman’s hedge fund.

They also disclose funds under management at Pershing Square (that is all assets under the strategy).
This is the website:
Pershing Square Holdings reports both weekly numbers and monthly numbers.
According to prior press releases the numbers were released in the following pattern.

(a) Weekly numbers were reported as per the close of business Tuesday and made public the following Thursday (except when there are holidays).
(b). Monthly numbers are reported for the close of the month two days after the close of the month.
On Friday 2 October I took a screenshot the results. Here is that screenshot.

The observant will notice that the reporting dates are 
1 September,
8 September
15 September
22 September and 
30 September.
The last reporting date should – if the pattern were continued – be 29 September. Instead they reported data for 30 September. 

That last week has eight days.
The results as reported on the 30th of September were bad. Pershing Square scored minus 12.5 percent for the month.

However they were
 worse as per 29 September than 30 September. Valeant rose 12-13 percent that day. Valeant is Pershing Square’s biggest holding. The vast bulk of the book moved in Pershing Square’s favour during the last day of the month.
The rough calculation is that Pershing Square’s performance was almost $800 million worse on September 29 than September 30 – which a cynic might say provides an incentive not to report September 29 results. Of course I would say that Pershing Square is being (extremely) modest about their fantastic day on the 30th of September. 

A portfolio calculation is Appendix A.  [Our estimate is a $777 million swing between the 29th and the 30th of September. The only position that is not disclosed is the size of the Herbalife short. We have a fairly accurate estimate of the size of this position but it does not matter much for this calculation.]

Pershing Square was – it seems – would normally have report a minus 16.6 percent number as a month to date number, but possibly in innocent error did not make this (rather shocking) disclosure. 

There are plenty of stories in the press about Pershing Squares bad month (see hereherehere). I know that Pershing Square is a remarkably open institution. Mr Ackman is the king of the three hour press conference. It is unthinkable that he would not tell the world just how good their day was on the 30th of September.

So I will. 

Pershing Square – my estimate – was down 16.6 percent month to date as per the 29th of September but had a miraculous day on the 30th of September and finished down a mere 12.5 percent. 

The press reported about Pershing Square’s terrible month but could have equally reported about their fantastic day. Without reporting the fantastic day I suspect the press is treating the Baby Buffett unfairly.

The new footnote
There was a footnote that explains the reporting data on Pershing Square Holding’s website. Here it is in text and photo…
Weekly net asset value (“NAV”) is calculated as of the close of business on each Tuesday and posted on the following Thursday. In the event that Tuesday is not a business day, the Company will calculate the close-of-business NAV as of the business day immediately preceding that Tuesday. In the event that Wednesday or Thursday is not a business day, any such weekly NAV will be posted the next business day following that Thursday. End-of-month NAV is calculated as of the close of business on the last day of the month and will be posted within two business days thereafter. In the event that month-end falls on a Wednesday, the Company will report the month-end NAV on Thursday, and not report the weeklyTuesday NAV. In the event that Wednesday or Thursday is not a business day, any such month-end NAV will be posted the next business day following that Thursday…

In summary it says in the footnote says if the month ends on a Wednesday we will not bother reporting the Tuesday numbers. 

And the photo:

If you are really observant you will note the typo in the footnote. It says weeklyTuesday without a space in the text. This was deeply suggestive that the footnote is recent because Pershing Square’s presentation material is usually highly polished and without typos. 

This footnote, with its sloppy and atypical typo was almost certainly written by a junior. [As you will see the footnote has been modified within days of its appearance.]
I wanted to confirm the footnote was recent. Did they just do it to hide the fantastic day they had on the 30th of September (or a cynic might say their bad month until 29 September) or did they have it all the time?
The way to tell is to check old months.
The last time that a month ended on a Wednesday is December 2014. 
If the rule applied then we should see a data point for December 31 and no data point for December 30.
Confirming recency Pershing Square Holdings had both a December 30 and a December 31 data point. They were still on the website. Here is a picture. 

This it appears this month is the first time Pershing Square have applied the month-end-on Wednesday rule. 
A cynic might say that this is a ham-fisted attempt to hide an extremely bad month-to-date data point. However I just think someone wanted to hide the spectacularly good performance on 30 September.

But don’t worry – we will report Pershing Square missing data point for you.

On our estimate Pershing Square month to date on 29 September 2019 was down 16.6%. For the month to date. And then in brilliance they had a great day and finished the month much better.

They had to muck around with the calendar not to report to you the wonderful day they had on the 30th of September. [A cynic might suggest they mucked around with the calendar to hide bad results - but Mr Ackman would not do that.]

More changing footnotes

I sent this material to the Financial Times. I copied it to Bill Ackman. I think it was also handed around fairly widely. Within a few hours of market open Pershing Square had released a press release about their new market disclosure rules.  You can find a PDF version of that press release here

The new rule was as follows:


Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. has made two changes to its NAV reporting policies. Weekly and monthly NAV reporting will now be provided on a one-business-day lag rather than a two-business-day lag. For weeks that include a month-end NAV report, PSH will provide only month-end performance. As a result of the changes, investors will now receive more timely NAV reporting, but only one NAV report each week.

Now the company will not report weekly results for weeks in during which the month ends.

The short-lived “if the month ends on a Wednesday” rule has gone and has been replaced by another footnote – the picture of which is here… The NAV page has also been reformatted.

The month end on a Wednesday rule was absurd. If there was no reason to give the data point for a Tuesday when the month ended on a Wednesday you could argue there was no reason for a Tuesday data point when the month ended on the Monday.

That suggests yet again they changed it on the spot so that they did not have to report the fantastic data on the 30th of September. [A cynic might suggest that they did it so they did not have to report an atrocious month-to-date data point on the 29th - however Bill Ackman would never risk being so needlessly deceptive.]

Whatever: the [Pershing Square] will not report a weekly number if the month ends on a Wednesday rule is now gone. They will no longer report weekly data in any week that a month ends.

This rule also has problems which indicate it was thought up on the fly. What for instance happens when the month end occurs on a Friday? Do they not provide any results that week (preferring instead to wait to the following Tuesday)?

Pershing Square changed its rules on the fly inventing and thinly disclosing an 8 day week to hide their wonderful performance on the 30th of September. The new rules are a confused and made up to support their modesty.

So we will report again. As of 29 September 2015, a date that Pershing would normally have reported, the funds were down 16.6 month to date. And they had a great day on the 30th.

Eight days a week

For the moment though Pershing Square thinks it is okay to – without prior notice – report on an eight day week. Sure they did it so they could modestly hide the fantastic performance on 30 September. But the motivation is not the issue here.

Having an eight day week opens Bill Ackman up for allegations of deception – allegations that Bill should neutralise immediately by reporting the interim data point as originally planned.

I would expect nothing less.

John

And just because eight day weeks are fun I should finish with a song for Bill Ackman.

As per the Beatles: “I ain’t got nothing but love babe, eight days a week”.

John

Appendix

Here are the holdings and prices as we estimate them at Pershing Square. The holdings other than Mondalez and Herbalife are from the last quarterly form.

The Mondalez holding is from recent filings.

The Herbalife estimate (which does not matter much for this calculation) is from our own estimate. It does not matter for this calculation as the Herbalife price was almost entirely unchanged on 30 September.

It is clear that Pershing Square had truly miraculous performance on 30 September. A cynic would say the month-to-date that they did not disclose (the month to 29 September) was terrible. I prefer to think of 30 September as wonderful.

J

Company Ticker Holding Price 29 September Price 30 September Gain on 30 sep
Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX 19473933 $158.08 $178.38 $395,320,839.90
Air Products APD 20549076 $125.82 $127.58 $36,166,373.76
Canadian Pacific CP 13940890 $138.14 $143.57 $75,699,032.70
Zoetis ZTS 41823145 $39.65 $41.18 $63,989,411.85
Restaurant Brands QSR 38003984 $34.71 $35.92 $45,984,820.64
Platform Specialty Products PAH 42737394 $12.06 $12.65 $25,215,062.46
Howard Hughes Corp HHC 3568017 $112.52 $114.74 $7,920,997.74
Mondelez MDLZ 120265238 $40.81 $41.87 $127,481,152.28
Herbalife HLF -21000000 $54.48 $54.50 -$420,000.00










Total $777,357,691.33


Source: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2015/10/pershing-square-modifies-their.html


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