ES Morning Update November 13th 2018

What a surprise! A large down day on a holiday. Strangely I’ve seen that act before, but predicting in advance isn’t easy. The good news though is that forecasting a “pause” day is, and that’s what I expect for today. Ideally it closes green but there’s no guarantee of that. Tomorrow might be a second pause day too, so keep that in mind. I don’t see them rallying up too high to allow the bulls out or the bears in. Dropping it hard yesterday on a holiday was the trick to catch traders off guard. Now that they are trapped I don’t expect Mr. Market to let them out.

Everyone see’s the “Inverted Head and Shoulders” pattern so I’d expect some bulls to dip their toes into longs, but if this goes like I expect that pattern should fail and the next big drop should follow. At best I think we have two days of choppy sideways consolidation (pause days) before it resolves itself one direction or the other. My thought are that we continue lower. Anyway, I’ll just keep this update short as I’m still bearish over all but I’m looking for chop day today so there’s not much else to add. Best of luck to you… especially the bulls.