ES Morning Update September 11th 2019

As I told to everyone in the free chatroom yesterday the Lucy3 sell was killed yesterday morning with the move down. For the sell to have setup at the close the market would have needed to have very little weakness all day and grind up higher. It did close green but the move down was too much and killed that setup.

But we still have the upside FP on the SPY to look for as a turning point. If it get hit today or tomorrow I’ll be interested in a short. True, it won’t be a huge one that drops to 2800 or even 2700, but it will be a nice short never the less. That Lucy3 would have been a Grand Slam Home-run, but they don’t come along that often so we are back to looking for just base hits, like singles and sometimes doubles.

If we hit the FP by the close tomorrow (looks tired this morning from the move up yesterday) then it should be good for a move back down to a “possible” FP of 294.04 SPY, which is basically a backtest of the 2940 prior resistance zone on the SPX… and I’d call that a nice double if it happens all in one day, like on Friday. A drop from 300.84 to 294.04 is over 60 SPX points, so it’s a nice short anyway you look at it. No guarantees though on it dropping that far, but it is a logic area to retest. If it only drops 20-30 points then we get a nice single… still worth playing in my opinion.

It’s pretty clear to me that those that control the market do not want it to take out the 200 day simple moving average on the daily chart as they held it up every time the SPX got near it over the past month or two, which was down in the low 2800 SPX area. Today it’s at 2813.21 and the only recent time we touched it was at the June 3rd, 2019 low.

This market is very likely going to put in new all time highs and run up to 28,500-29,000 on the DOW before the year ends (Oscar Carboni’s targets), but trying to guess the “when” part (on the new all time highs) isn’t easy. For now I’ll just focus on the day to day moves and not worry about the next game.

I’m looking for singles and doubles and my guess at this point is that we’ll hit the upside FP on Thursday and that a nice short will setup when it does. Today looks choppy again, but a move down to make a higher low into the close today would be a nice B wave of some degree with the A up starting at the low yesterday. Then maybe we get the C up tomorrow for the hit and pierce of the FP? That’s what I’m looking for… good luck.