Back to Reality; Trade "Truce" Changes Very Little; Overpaying for Growth Still the Biggest Risk

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17 October 2019

Video commentary for October 16th 2019

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: commodity currencies weak, fsical stimulus waning, China growth a concern, oii steady, Pound continues to firm on improving Brexit sentiment.

Blueprint For Thinking About The Future

Thanks to Bernard Tan for this essay which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

China’s people are its greatest resource. Education has historically been the single greatest enabler of individual and familial success in most countries and China is no exception. The success of overseas Chinese populations all over the world is in large part tied to their commitment to the education of their children and commitment to a frugal existence, work ethic and investment in property. It’s natural that the same cultural affinity should apply in China.

Norway’s Krone Hits Weakest on Record Amid Trade Turmoil

This article by Sveinung Sleire for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers.

Norway’s krone hit the weakest on record against the euro, surpassing the previous record set during the 2008 financial crisis.

The krone touched 10.1641 per euro at 2:45 pm in Oslo, according to Bloomberg data, amid pressure from global tensions and weakening oil prices.

Norway is Western Europe’s biggest producer of petroleum products and gets almost half its goods exports from oil and natural gas.

Norges Bank has been puzzled by the weakening currency, a move that has allowed it to raise interest rates four times since September 2018. The central bank has increased its estimate on the currency’s equilibrium exchange rate, meaning that it now sees the weakening currency as a structural shift.

Eoin Treacy’s view

Crude oil prices are close to breakeven levels for shale drillers, are challenging the profitability of newer offshore sites and are well below the fiscal breakevens for much of OPEC. That is putting downward pressure on the currencies of oil producers.

Back to Reality; Trade “Truce” Changes Very Little; Overpaying for Growth Still the Biggest Risk

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

The fiscal impetus from the Trump tax cuts is expiring but the boost from the commitment to increase government spending agreed in the summer remains an important factor. Nevertheless, even that is expected to fade in 2020. That suggests the turn to easier monetary policy at the Fed can’t happen quickly enough.

Eoin’s personal portfolio: precious metals long initiated

Eoin Treacy’s view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I’ll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

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