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Quarantining In the North Woods

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Yesterday, I left Chicago for our cabin in the middle of the woods.  It’s in northern Minnesota.  When I say north, I mean two and a half hours north of Duluth.  I have been coming here since 1974.

The policymakers in Chicago disgust me and so does the media that cover them.  The media is so dim they never put two and two together or ask a series of probing questions.

We knew that this summer we’d have a lot of work to do.  There is a sign in our cabin from the original owner.  He was in the US Forest Service with my grandfather.  Here is a photo.

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This winter both the dock on my cabin and my grandfather’s dock next door had a huge battle with the ice. The ice won.  I am putting in a floating dock this summer at some point.  These places are literally cabins.  As I type this I am sitting in a three-room cabin with a Franklin Stove providing the heat.  We have one indoor bathroom.  But, as Jeff Goldblum’s character in The Big Chill said, “Nature, it’s one big toilet.”

My wife saw a pair of bufflehead ducks on the lake this evening getting cozy.  Aren’t they beautiful?

Not sure if they will hang around or not. We always have golden eyes, mergansers, mallards, loons and of course the eagle who terrorizes them.  I am sure in the next couple of days we will go out for a kayak to look for the family of otters that live on the lake.  A fox has been working our property the past few weeks.  We haven’t heard nor seen any bears yet.  But, they are out and about.  Nature is waking up.  It’s fun to see it emerge.

My neighbor put up a duck house. That’s on my to-do list but I won’t get to it this year. The great thing about this place is that when we rehabbed it, we put electric in and I have fiber internet to my doorstep. Given that everything is virtual, I have faster internet and better video here than I do in Chicago.

There is always work to do around here to keep me busy. A lot better than sitting around eating and drinking which is what I have been doing for the past few months. It was nice chopping wood for a fire this evening.

I think that sitting in your house dreading getting sick is a lot worse for you than being out and about. It’s terrible for your health to just sit.  I have done too much sitting the past several months and it is time to change that.  Besides, if I am going to sit around it’s a lot more pleasant here than in a lot of other places.

A good friend of mine, Aaron Ginn, was profiled in the WSJ Saturday.profiled in the WSJ Saturday. It’s worth reading. Aaron questioned the intelligence and the public policy early in the COVID 19 thing.  He was harassed and the powers that be tried to silence him. Medium even pulled his post down.  Guess we know where Medium and the other social media giants stand on free speech.

The thing that Aaron kept stressing was you didn’t need to be an epidemiologist or a biologist to interpret raw data. Bayes Probability is Bayes Probability.  Costs and Opportunity Costs are what they are. As long as you are transparent with your assumptions, it’s possible to have a non-threatening debate and drive understanding which drives better policy.  I don’t think the policymakers, specifically the medically credentialed ones, are totaling up the costs and opportunity costs correctly.  I also don’t think they really truly understand Bayes nor do they understand risk.

Hope you have a great Sunday.



Source: http://pointsandfigures.com/2020/05/17/quarantining-in-the-north-woods/
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