It is NEVER different no matter what FED does

Oh yes – I am back from vacation (I saw a woman swimming in the pool in the mask and gloves in Palm Beach, FL – the stupidity of people can not be over estimated indeed)

The idiocy of free for all money always ends when the most bullish analysts are unable to keep up with their own upside targets. 

So happened On September 1st 2000 when counter trend rally fizzled and everyone stopped being a genius. Just like back in September 2000 for NASDAQ and July 2008 for Crude (when Morgan Stanley proclaimed that crude will go to $200 when it was $160

 This time is no different, never is, just takes longer on the way up… MARCH 6th 2009 (CALLING THE MARKET BUTTOM )

Louis Yamada Has 1175 Target for S&P 500 Index (Transcript) 

July 11,2008 [The DAY The Oil has PEAKED ]

KEENE:  Are you in the $200 oil camp, just here in twenty seconds?

Louis  YAMADA: Well, unfortunately we do have a statistical number out there. But oil has reached all of our targets from $67 to $80 to $100, and $125, and even $140.

KEENE: Where’s your target right now?

Louis YAMADA: Well I think you’re probably going to get a little consolidation. But we have one little bit higher target at $150, as long as it holds above $120. But the thing has to consolidate at some point.

Trading To Win
June 11, 2008

[ One month before oil peaked and Yamada expressed her "confusion".

USO was $112 that week, with all time high of $118 on July 11th and /QM futures at about 148 ]

DavidDT:  Just a quick note on OIL – this is / might be a very good week to go short/get out of long positions. I think so because all the hopelessness and fear all over TV, public restrooms ( glad I don’t have to use those too often) and due to purely technical reasons ( set of not widely known extremely tweaked by yours truly indicators), plus one more reason Stated by Morgan Stanley – I’ll just repost what I posted at TradeKing’s forums ( I am not affiliate of TK, so I don’t care if you like them, but I AM an affiliate of Worden TeleCharts and Blocks and you at no additional expenses to you might open TC account using the link on the left side or just tell them magic number 638 ) few days ago ( read below):
” My hat off to Morgan Stanley on OIL
posted 06/08/08 01:38 PM | Viewed 104 times
It is not often that major brokerage house tells you “when to sell”
That was what MS just did ( as oppose to GS $150-200 price target for oil in “some future” )
MS by saying “Oil will be at $150 by July 4th” clearly sends out a message for those who can figure it out - SELL OIL BEFORE JULY 4th when seasonably unfavorable time for energy stocks/resources starts. ( which IS the end of June ).
Even if hysteria will change the normal flow of the energy markets this time – at least MS sent out clear honest message – tighten up your stop by then. Bravo MS!
DavidDT “

March 6th, 2009

P.S.

For your weekend enjoyment take a look where we are now and think very hard about “great investment hype” – even in the “good times”

Here is the link to the great find of Paul from http://novicebear.marketturbulence.com

Below 1966 Levels

That is exactly what I have been arguing with dimwitted confused propaganda inflicted bagholders A.K.A. “investors” ever since the beginning of times.
One would wonder – why American educational system stinks? It is easier to lie to people who don’t know better.

P.P.S.

Still double guessing if this is a bottom?.. Stay tuned…

And here is yet another post dated April 18th 2008 – when the REAL bear market started

Doorman Syndrome   APRIL 18th 2008

As of the moment of this writing my trading portfolio pretty much “bleeding” on most of positions – I am 80% net short, started the week at 20% net short, was adding as market rally progressed( About 50% of short position is DUG – already at a loss of about 5%).
Why?

That rally had to happen, mainly because of “Doorman Syndrome” and here is
the Story:
One fine day back in 2000, right in the neurotic euphoria of the “New Internet Economy/This time it is a different story”, when I came back home from work, the doorman of the building where I lived at a time, stopped me and was excitedly describing to me for about 15 minutes “how much money he made on the stock market, about to retire, well – he WAS retired at that time, and how EASY it was to make money on the stock market”

At that time I was, like a lot of other thinking people PARTIALLY in the market, I just found it difficult to accept the magnitude of degenerate feelings surrounding “The New Big Thing”, so, truly I did miss A LOT OF upside by been overly cautious.

After “Doorman” conversation took place – I immediately went back into the market, 100% of my money.

SHORT, I went SHORT, very Marry Short. Not so Marry in the beginning, I recall not been able to sleep at night, not “sleep well”, but sleep at all, pain was unbearable at times, especially if I tell you that in spite of my latest bearish ideas I AM a perpetual BULL , and by going short back then and been wrong I thought that punishment is deserved for “not believing”.
……..
When “everyone believes that the worst is over and it will be easy to be long!” – it is time to be SHORT…AGAIN

Like they say: “Market will do what we expect it to do, only not WHEN we expect it too”

“This will lead to only possible logical outcome” ( I, Robot)

ENJOY YOUR BEAR MARKET