Bulls took another beaten yesterday as a midday “fall of the cliff” drop happened out of nowhere. It’s being blamed on something Fed Chief Powell said, but in reality I’m sure there was just too many bulls still long and buying the pullback that needed taken out.
I’m still long and rode out the pain as I still see another new all time high coming next week before this market really collapses. I’ve looked at the 1hr, 2hr, 4h and 6h charts and they all look similar now to the 9/26/20, 10/30/20, and 01/31/21 lows. They were all bottoms as they all got very oversold. And then there’s the issue with different indexes having a different percentage of a move down from their top. I’m told the DAX (which I don’t follow) only corrected about 1%, and the DOW did 3%, with the SPX around 5.5%.
The Nasdaq was around 9% I believe, so all these indexes are mus-matched. I’m not to say that there’s some rule that they all fall about the same percentage, as that’s not accurate. But generally they all move in sync together and that’s not the case currently. The biggest signal that was very bearish was the fact that the SPX broken through the “all important” rising green trendline of support from the March 2020 lows.
However, it was just one day and as long as the market recaptures it today the bull rally is still intact. It’s off to good start here in the futures, so a green close today back over that trendline is super important. It’s around 3800 roughly on the ES/SPX. The DOW also needs to recapture the 31,000 level that it lost yesterday but rallied back up into the close to almost hit it again. It ended up just a little under that level and it’s looking like we will open above it this morning.
Counting these waves has been a nightmare as I keep getting them wrong, so I’ll just say that I’m still bullish here into the end of next week where I see a new all time high happening. That should be the last high and setup the market for big drop we’ve all be looking forward too.
So, for today I don’t expect a lot on the upside but a recapture of support is a must. Over the weekend they will be discussing the stimulus bill again, so if it passes you should expect a nice move up on Monday. This current correction is cracks in the Dam for sure, but I don’t think it’s ready to bust just yet. Have a wonderful weekend.
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