ES Morning Update September 10th 2021

Charts are mixed this morning with no clear direction seen. The 4hr and 6hr charts got close to oversold but didn’t quite enter that zone (below 30) and bounced back up since then. Until I see them truly oversold I have to keep the door open for another move down as possible. Doesn’t have to be big, and in fact I wouldn’t expect much more then a retest of the lows yesterday basically, or a little lower.

That’s another hit of 4479, and there’s good support just below that at 4460, which is possible as well. But 80% of the move is over with in my opinion, which is based on the RSI being nearly oversold on the 4hr and 6hr charts. Problem is “nearly” isn’t the same as “oversold”, which is why I say the door is open for another move down first before a strong rally back up (which could put in new all time highs). I’m thinking that we’ll see that last move down Sunday/Monday and then back up the rest of the week into the monthly options expiration on Friday.

Possible new highs there around 4580, but that’s big resistance so I don’t see any breakout on the first hit. If this plays out like I’m suggesting then from that new high we should then see a 3-5% pullback into early October where the seasonality chart suggests a “last low” is put in before a huge rally up the rest of the year. Short term… I don’t see anything today. There was a fake print on the SPY afterhours yesterday at 450.89 and they’ve already hit it this morning before the open. I’d say we chop sideways mostly today and then do that last drop into next Monday. Have a great weekend.