ES Morning Update November 16th 2021

The market is still refusing to rollover, but this is common really… at least at an important top. It acts similar to the week prior to the top last year on February 19th, 2020. I’m not saying we are going to crash like that, but it has a similar feel to it.

I’m just looking for a nice correction, like 20% or so… then a crazy rally up to 6,7, or 8000 next year, who knows? You have to remember the “presidential cycle” and know that we are currently at the midpoint of one right now, so the odds of another crash are very low. Looking back the last 40 years you’ll see that all crashes, depressions, recessions, etc… came when one president was leaving and/or the next one entering. Ron Reagan was president from 1980-1988, and when did the market crash?

The last year of his term in 1987 is the correct answer. I bull market started afterwards and last for about 12 years, and from 1992 to 2000 we had Bill Clinton, and the recession started on his last year in 1999 when dot com bust happened. It lasted into 2002 but then another bull market started. Of course the next president was George Bush Jr and was in from 2000 to 2008, and once again the next recession was from 2007 (his last year) into 2009, which was into the first of the next president Barrack Obama.

Another 12 year bull market started from there and lasted until the last year of president Donald Trump when we crashed in 2020. Do you see a pattern here? We are now in the middle of the current 4 year presidential cycle, which tells me the next possible period where another crash, recession, or depression could happen is from 2023-2025 where a new president can come into office. For these reasons and more I cannot see another crash this year, or next (maybe late 2022 but it really should be in 2023).

I see a serious pullback though, and that should be enough to get everyone very bearish so they can use those shorts for fuel to squeeze the market higher and higher all of 2022. It’s extremely hard for the market to go higher from here right now due to the extreme bullishness in the market currently. If everyone is long then who do you get to buy the market at higher levels? It’s not anything more then just common sense here. The market is up at extremes with everyone long and very few expecting anything more then just another small pullback of 5-6%, which I’m sure if we do that everyone that missed this current mega-squeeze rally will go long with everything they have.

That’s a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Bulls just walking into the frying pan asking to be eaten. So while I’ve been wrong on calling the exact day it topped (which is extreme hard to do for anyone) I still maintain my thoughts that we are going to see a nice pullback here of around 20% or so before any blast off to 5000+ in the market.

Put simply, I think we’ll break 4000 before we break 5000, and I think it’s coming in December. For the short term the market just seem to be working off the short term oversold charts and getting them back up to overbought. Once they all line up again (overbought I mean) we should see the start of the first move down in an ABC correction. Have a blessed day.