ES Morning Update November 8th 2021

Nothing has changed since my last update as I’m still looking for a 5-7% pullback into the end of November. The common pattern is to put in the “Pit Bull” low on the second Thursday/Friday of the month, which will be this week, and then a move up back up (or choppy) into the monthly OPEX to pin all the options at max pain. This pattern doesn’t always work but with the market up at a top and very overbought it should work this month as pullback this week is very likely.

The move will only be the A leg in an ABC pattern to make the Large Wave 2 down, which again should finish by the end of this month. If we see the pullback this week then next week we should see the B wave bounce into Friday the 19th, but it could top by Wednesday the 17th as the November VIX contract expires at 8am that morning and the common pattern for the big boys is to sell naked VIX calls when the market pulls back and then buy the market into the expiration of those calls so that they drop and expire worthless.

So anytime between the 17th and 19th the B wave bounce should be finished. Then the last week of the month we see the C wave to finish the Larger Wave 2 down. If this all plays out then we’ll see a huge rally in December and into early January for the Large Wave 3 up. I don’t have a crystal ball of course but so far this seems to be the plan, and of course it’s subject to change. For now though we’ll just follow the plan until something changes it. Have a blessed day.