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ES Morning Update December 30th 2021

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The extremely light volume is doing as expected by keeping the market going sideways and not allowing an kind of move down at all to happen. This will likely continue into Friday as well so there won’t be much more I can say tomorrow if today repeats yesterday, which so far it’s looking like it will. Next week is the start of the new year and one of the most bullish periods, at least the first several days. I’m sure everyone knows that and is expecting this rally to continue higher where they will all be looking for a top to short at later in the week after the bullish period passes.

Seasonality has it choppy into mid-January and then bearish into the end of the month and first part of February, so shorting after OPEX in January seems like the logical move, but when is this market ever logical? It’s full of surprises as we all know so while the odds of a gap down next Monday and drop into OPEX instead of a rally are low it would certainly fool the most traders I think.

Again, odds are low but I do know that just when all the bears are asleep is when the market finally rolls over. Most won’t see it coming as that’s how SkyNet work as it terminates your trading account. That’s all fantasy I guess as odds are we go up more next week to take out the 4800 level and run the stops on any bears left brave enough to short it here.

This chart is something I did yesterday and it clearly suggests we are still in the “B” pattern currently and will breakout for the “C” pattern next week, and finally start the “D” pattern after the last bear is dead. Again, Seasonality would suggest that after the first few days of next week we chop into Options Expiration on January 21st so that could be a long drawn out 3 weeks to make a 100% sure there’s no bears left. Or the trick us with a drop into OPEX for the “D” pattern instead. Who knows which is going to happen but just be on high alert for surprises. Have a blessed day.


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